Phillip Connor prepared the migration input data, wrote descriptions of migration results and methods, and helped write the chapters on each religious group and geographic region. Noble Kuriakose was involved in nearly all stages of the project and helped draft the chapter on demographic factors and the Methodology. Former intern Joseph Naylor helped design maps, and David McClendon, another former intern, helped research global patterns of religious switching. Grim and visiting senior research fellow Mehtab Karim.
Communications support was provided by Katherine Ritchey and Russ Oates. While the data collection and projection methodology were guided by our consultants and advisers, the Pew Research Center is solely responsible for the interpretation and reporting of the data. The remainder of this report details the projections from multiple angles. The first chapter looks at the demographic factors that shape the projections, including sections on fertility rates, life expectancy, age structure, religious switching and migration.
About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world.
It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Newsletters Donate My Account. Research Topics. If current trends continue, by … The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.
The global Buddhist population will be about the same size it was in , while the Hindu and Jewish populations will be larger than they are today. India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.
In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in to two-thirds in , and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion.
Muslims will be more numerous in the U. Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa. Beyond the Year This report describes how the global religious landscape would change if current demographic trends continue. Changing Religious Majorities Several countries are projected to have a different religious majority in than they did in This overall projection 9.
A recent update from the United Nations has a somewhat higher estimate, 9. The U. The Pew Research Center consulted several scholars on this historical question. Todd M. Bulliet, say it is possible that Muslims may have outnumbered Christians globally sometime between and C. All of the experts acknowledged that estimates of the size of religious groups in the Middle Ages are fraught with uncertainty.
Because of the scarcity of census and survey data, Pew Research has not projected the size of individual religions within this category. Estimates of the global size of these faiths generally come from other sources, such as the religious groups themselves. By far the largest of these groups is Sikhs, who numbered about 25 million in , according to the World Religion Database. Estimates from other sources on the size of additional groups in this category can be found in the sidebar in Chapter 2.
Jews comprised 0. Both figures are rounded to 0. In countries with low infant and child mortality rates, a Total Fertility Rate close to 2. Replacement-level fertility is higher in countries with elevated mortality rates. For more information on how fertility shapes population growth, see Chapter 1. These projections model a dynamic migrant population in GCC countries, in which some migrants leave as others arrive and, over time, there are net gains in the size of the foreign-born population within each GCC country.
It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Newsletters Donate My Account. Research Topics. Try our email course on Muslims and Islam Learn about Muslims and Islam through four short lessons delivered to your inbox every other day.
Share this link:. Michael Lipka is an editorial manager of religion research at Pew Research Center. Conrad Hackett is a senior demographer and associate director of research at Pew Research Center. On why the global Muslim population is growing so rapidly. They have a median age of And Muslims have more children than people in any other group.
About three children per woman who's Muslim, compared to about 2. In Egypt, for example, most people who grew up Christian retain that identity as adults, and the same for those who grew up Muslim. There are some restrictions on switching faith in Muslim-majority countries. Scholar discusses Islamic reform That means that Islam -- currently the world's second-largest religion -- will surpass Christianity as the world's biggest religion by the end of the century, the study projects.
Reza Aslan: Why I am a Muslim.
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